There are a couple of factors to consider when predicting which film will win Best Picture. The first of these factors is the preferential ballot system that the Academy uses for voting on the winner. Let me break this down for you as best as I can.
Each Academy member gets a ballot. On that ballot members rank the eight nominated films in order of best to worst. After the ballots have been submitted, all of the first place votes are added up and allotted to their designated films. If at the end of this process, one nominee has over 50% of the first place votes, then you have your winner. If not, however, the nominee with the fewest first place votes is taken out of consideration. So let's say that hypothetically Whiplash gets the fewest number of votes. It would then no longer be eligible to win best picture, and every ballot that had Whiplash in the number one spot would then move on to the film that is listed as second best on the ballot, and those votes are added to the totals for their designated films. This process continues on until one film has more than 50% of the votes for best picture. So hypothetically, Birdman could get 40% of the first place votes, but a film like Boyhood could eventually surpass it in the voting as more films are eliminated from contention.
Another factor to consider is who votes. The Academy is made up of industry members who have been invited to join. The nominations are determined by each separate voting body within the Academy. So actors nominate actors, directors nominate directors, animators nominate animated films, and so on. When it comes to voting for a winner after nominations have been set, the entire Academy votes on every category. The biggest voting block in the Academy is the actors branch. So, when looking at a Best Picture nominees chances, you often have to consider what kind of movie it is. Actors love actor driven movies. Gravity won just about every technical award it could last year, but when it came down to Best Picture, Gravity is a movie with one main actor, and 12 Years A Slave is a movie with a large ensemble. The same thing happened to Avatar when it lost to The Hurt Locker in 2010. If your film can't gain the support of the actors branch of the Academy, then you can probably forget winning Best Picture.
Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Whiplash
The Imitation Game
Boyhood
Selma
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who will win?
This is a close race this year between Birdman and Boyhood. Leading up to the Oscars, Birdman has won the Best Ensemble SAG award (which is basically that guild's equivalent of Best Picture), as well as the top prizes from the Directors' Guild and the Producers' Guild. In most cases this would make Birdman a sure bet to win this year. The last time a film won all three of those awards and didn't win the Oscar was Apollo 13 back in 1996. This is also an actor driven movie, so it probably will not be hard for it to gains support among the acting branch members. Boyhood has racked up its fair share of praise too. It won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama, the Critics Choice award for Best Picture, and the BAFTA for Best Picture. What makes the BAFTA win significant here, is that they use a preferential ballot system like the Academy. So Boyhood might benefit from this voting system more than Birdman. If I had to guess, I'm going to say that the Academy will end up giving this to Boyhood. The story behind how Boyhood was made, makes it an easy film to vote for, and I think the preferential ballot system will have it close to the top of most of this year's ballots.
Who should win?
1.) Selma
Selma tells the story of how Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. organized the March from Selma, Alabama to the state's capitol in an effort to bring an end to laws that were keeping minorities from being able to register to vote. This is an incredibly well crafted film. The cinematography is stunning, the direction by Ava DuVernay is best work any director did this year, and David Oyelowo gave the best performance by an actor in any film. The fact that all of those elements were neglected by the Academy shows that there are flaws in the nomination system. Not only is this the most well crafted film in the category, it's also the most culturally relevant. Some people have said Selma should be happy to be recognized here, but the best film of 2014 deserved more recognition.
2.) Birdman
Birdman tells the story of an actor who is making his Broadway debut in an attempt to regain his artistic relevance, but who is slowly losing his mind to his growing need for fame. There are a lot of moving parts to a film like Birdman, that make it a marvel to watch. The cinematography is excellent (and will probably win an Oscar), the film has a kinetic energy, and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's direction of all of these moving parts is impressive. Michael Keaton, Emma Stone, Edward Norton, and Naomi Watts all give Oscar worthy performances. This film asks complex and interesting questions about the nature of art, and the people who are creating it.
3.) Boyhood
Boyhood tells the story of a young boy and his family over twelve years of their lives. The director and cast dedicated 12 years of their lives to making this film, which would be impressive enough, even if the film hadn't turned out to be very good. It turned out to be an amazing film that features a sense of realism unlike any other film I have ever seen. The story has universal qualities any viewer can relate to, and excellent work from a cast that makes each character feel believable and real. Richard Linklater deserves a lot of credit for having the vision to make this film work.
4.) Whiplash
Whiplash tells the story of a young drummer who wants to be the best, and his legendary teacher who uses questionable methods to drive his students. This film is a masterful work of contained chaos. Actors J.K. Simmons and Miles Teller are forces of nature here, and it is amazing to watch them play off of each other here. The film asks a lot of questions about the teacher/student relationship and how far is too far in the pursuit of success. Simmons' character uses unethical methods to bring the best out of his students, but he is also arguably the only person who can bring the best out of these students. There are no simple answers here, just thought provoking questions.
5.) The Imitation Game
The Imitation Game tells the story of Alan Turing and a team of code breakers who worked to break the Nazi Enigma code during World War II, so that the allies could win the war. Early on this was considered a strong contender to win this award because its a crowd-pleaser that focuses on a true historical story. It does fit that criteria, but beyond some fine acting by Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley, this film doesn't quite live up to past historical films (such as The King's Speech or Argo) that have won Best Picture. It's a worthy nomination, but this film shouldn't be winning this award.
6.) The Theory of Everything
The Theory of Everything tells the story of Stephen Hawking the progression of his career and relationship with wife Jane Hawking, while suffering from ALS (also commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease). This is a case of a somewhat mediocre film being elevated by the performances of its actors. There are some impressive details to the film-making such as the cinematography and the score, but what's lacking here is the screenplay, which really drags at some points. Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones give two of the best performances of any actors this year, but it's not enough to make this an actual contender for this award.
7.) The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Grand Budapest Hotel tells the story of a hotel concierge and his faithful lobby boy who try to clear the concierge's name after he is falsely accused of killing one of the hotel's patrons. I've never been a fan of Wes Anderson's directing style, but I have to admit this film has some impressive qualities. The actors work perfectly in time with Anderson's pacing as a director, the cinematography looks impressive, and the screenplay is the best of any Wes Anderson film I have ever watched (which admittedly isn't many). I don't think this should be nominated for Best Picture, but the film isn't without its virtues.
8.) American Sniper
American Sniper tells the story of Chris Kyle who has the most verified kills of any American sniper, and how being a soldier affects his personal life. Bradley Cooper gives a great performance here, that in all honesty is much better than anything else the film attempts to do. This is a pretty limited film that lacks the complexity that is demanded by handling the subject of war, on film. It never goes quite as deep as it should into how war affects the soldiers who fought it, once they return home. I also think that it comes across as a very narrow minded approach to the subject matter. An amazing article about that can be read here. There are more deserving films of a nomination this year, but like The Grand Budapest Hotel, this film isn't without its strong points. It will likely at least come away from the Oscars with a sound award (a common win for war films).
Snubs:
Gone Girl
Nightcrawler
Wild
Foxcatcher
How To Train Your Dragon 2
For my analysis of Best Actor/Actress awards, click here.
For my analysis of Best Supporting Actor/Actress awards, click here.
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